Week 1 QB Rankings Downgrades For Fantasy Football: Patrick Mahomes Leads Freedman's Quarterback Fades

Let's get into the Week 1 QB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 1 favorites and fades.

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Week 1 Quarterback Rankings (Top 20)

Rank	Player
1	Josh Allen
2	Drake Maye
3	Lamar Jackson
4	Jayden Daniels
5	Joe Burrow
6	Jalen Hurts
7	Caleb Williams
8	Justin Herbert
9	Jaxson Dart
10	Trevor Lawrence
11	Brock Purdy
12	Dak Prescott
13	Kyler Murray
14	Patrick Mahomes
15	Bo Nix
16	Malik Willis
17	Matthew Stafford
18	Jordan Love
19	Tyler Shough
20	Jared Goff

QB Matchup Downgrades For Week 1: Josh Allen at Texans & Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Texans and Broncos last year were two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

Texans: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.126)
Broncos: No. 1 in defensive dropback SR (38.9%)

Josh Allen (Bills) at Texans: Allen is one of my 2026 fantasy favorites, and he has been especially strong indoors (10-5-1 ATS, 26.0% ROI, per Action Network) … but he's playing the Texans. When he played them last year in Week 12, Allen had just 10.1 fantasy points (no TDs, two INTs, just 20 yards rushing) in a 23-19 road loss. He probably won't get his investors chopped this week in Guillotine Leagues™, but he almost certainly won't look like the league's best QB.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Broncos: He had only modest production last year in his one game against the Broncos (14.3 points in a 22-19 loss), and Mahomes (knee) might be less aggressive as a runner returning from last year's season-ending injury. Over the past half-decade, the Chiefs have been No. 3 in worst home-field advantage (-0.90, per NFElo), which is diminished all the more against the Broncos, a divisional opponent who play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. Mahomes is on the wrong side of his splits as a divisional favorite (17-23-2 ATS, -15.6% ROI), and we tend not to see many points in general at Arrowhead Stadium: No QB has been more profitable to the under at home than Mahomes (49-29-1, 20.3% ROI).

Week 1 QB Scoring Downgrades: Jordan Love at Vikings & Drake Maye at Seahawks

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the QB."

For their baselines, I have the Packers projected this year with the No. 4 offense; the Patriots, No. 7. But this week the Packers are No. 18 in implied team total (22 points), and the Pats are No. 25 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Jordan Love (Packers) at Vikings: In his one 2025 game against the Vikings, Love had 7.1 points (139 yards passing, 15 yards rushing, no TDs), and that wasn't a fluke, as the Vikings last year were No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-5.4). Additionally, Love has underwhelmed on the road (11-16-1 ATS, -21.4% ROI). One of my 2026 NFL bold predictions is that Love will win MVP … but Week 1 could be rough.

Drake Maye (Patriots) at Seahawks: Maye wasn't terrible against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl (295 yards, two TDs passing), but he did have three turnovers (two INTs, one fumble), and now he must travel across the country for a primetime game against the team that last year was No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA (-20.2%). This could be his worst game all year.

Offensive Injury Downgrades In The Week 1 QB Rankings: Brock Purdy vs. Rams & Daniel Jones vs. Ravens

Here are a couple of QBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Rams (in Australia): Last year the Rams were No. 4 in defensive pass DVOA (-9.8%) … and then they added two future Hall of Famers in EDGE Myles Garrett and DT Aaron Donald. For his career, Purdy hasn't measured up against the Rams (0-3 ATS, -100% ROI) or as an underdog (1-5 ATS, -68.2% ROI). On top of that, WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR) and Christian Kirk (calf, IR) are out and WRs Mike Evans (groin) and De'Zhaun Stribling (shoulder), TE George Kittle (Achilles), FB Kyle Juszczyk (finger) and RB Christian McCaffrey (undisclosed) are all already dealing with injuries.

Daniel Jones (Colts) vs. Ravens: Jones (Achilles) could be a diminished version of himself in his return from a season-ending injury, and WRs Alec Pierce (ankle) and Josh Downs (calf) and TE Tyler Warren (groin) have uncertain health statuses. Additionally, the Ravens could have a revitalized defense with the additions of HC Jesse Minter and EDGE Trey Hendrickson and the return of DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck).

QB Rankings - Week 1 Situational Downgrades: Jacoby Brissett at Chargers & Tua Tagovailoa at Steelers

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) at Chargers: Brissett surprised last year with 3,366 yards and 23 TDs passing in 12 starts … but he turned that into only a 1-11 record, and now he has a new play caller. As non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on a turf surface that differs from the grass of their home field, the Cardinals are at a significant disadvantage on the road against the Chargers, who last year were No. 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs (15.6).

Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons) at Steelers: We don't even know for sure that Tagovailoa will start in Week 1. Regardless of whoever does start, we know this: HC Kevin Stefanski is terrible on the road (19-32 ATS, -28.1% ROI), and the Falcons are granting maximal home-field advantage to the Steelers as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on grass (instead of turf) and outdoors (instead of indoors).

Notes

Find each of my Week 1 Favorites and Fades below:

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.